The Future of Defense Acquisition: Priorities Shift in Air Refueling

Marc Ayala
Apr 1
3 min read

Updated: Jun 23

By Marc Ayala | Second in Command Consulting

March 31, 2025

In a major shift that reveals much about the future of defense acquisition, the U.S. Air Force has deprioritized its Next-Generation Air Refueling System (NGAS). Instead, it is pushing forward with the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter. This decision has far-reaching implications for primes, program offices, and every supplier and strategist involved in military aviation.

At first glance, this may seem like a setback for innovation in air refueling. NGAS was meant to be a survivable, stealthy tanker capable of operating in contested environments. It was designed to protect the future fighter fleet deep inside threat rings. However, this decision is not a retreat from survivable air refueling; it’s a realignment in how the Air Force aims to achieve it.

A Systems Approach Over an Exquisite Platform

According to Maj. Gen. Joseph Kunkel, Director of Force Design at the Pentagon, the Air Force is opting for a systems-based approach to survivable refueling. Instead of spending hundreds of millions per aircraft on stealth tankers, the service plans to leverage more conventional tankers. These include the KC-46 and KC-135, assisted by technologies and tactics to disrupt the adversary’s kill chain.

This marks a classic shift from a platform-centric mindset to a capability-centric one.

What Does This Mean in Practice?

Survivability will not come from merely cloaking tankers in radar-absorbing materials. Instead, it will rely on electronic warfare, decoys, long-range standoff capabilities, and deception. Most importantly, distributed operational concepts will be used to deny the enemy a clear targeting solution.

The transition to a capability-centric mindset will redefine how the Air Force approaches its needs and operations.

What This Means for Industry

For defense suppliers and business developers, this shift requires a sharpened focus on new opportunities:

The opportunity hasn’t gone away—it has changed form. While NGAS may be pushed aside, the requirement for contested refueling remains. This means there will be increased demand for survivability technologies, autonomous systems, and tactical enablers.
Legacy platforms are receiving new life. Expect modernization efforts for the KC-46 and KC-135. These may include sensor upgrades, communication enhancements, and collaborative autonomy tools that will integrate with future systems like Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs).
Value and adaptability are now paramount. The continuous survival of NGAD, despite concerns over its cost, shows that even exquisite programs must demonstrate strong cost-per-effect. Systems that are digitally engineered, modular, and survivable without massive logistics tails will thrive.
Force design thinking is replacing traditional acquisition. The Air Force didn’t merely kill NGAS; they redefined the problem. In the current environment, this is a vital lesson: those who shape the requirement space will win the future.

Implications for Military Strategy

As the landscape of military strategy evolves, adapting to these changes is crucial. The Air Force's new directives will necessitate a reevaluation of existing frameworks and the introduction of innovative strategies. Understanding these shifts will be key for both industry stakeholders and strategic planners.

Rethinking Go-To-Market Strategies

At Second in Command Consulting, we specialize in aiding aerospace and defense companies in rethinking their market strategies. We understand the mission-focused, system-of-systems reality of modern warfare. Whether you're launching a new product, supporting a proposal response, or trying to align your technology with the evolving puzzle, we offer decades of operational, technical, and sales expertise.

The tanker isn’t dead. The mission has just changed. Are you prepared for this evolution?