Why the Air Force Cut the Stealth Tanker: Lessons for the Defense Industry
- Marc Ayala
- Apr 1
- 3 min read
By Marc Ayala | Second in Command Consulting
March 31, 2025
In a major shift that reveals a lot about the future of defense acquisition, the U.S. Air Force has deprioritized its Next-Generation Air Refueling System (NGAS) in favor of pushing forward with the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter. The implications of this decision are far-reaching—not only for primes and program offices but for every supplier and strategist working in military aviation.
At first glance, this may seem like a blow to innovation in the air refueling mission set. After all, NGAS was envisioned as a survivable, stealthy tanker capable of operating in contested environments, protecting the future fighter fleet deep inside threat rings. But this decision is not a retreat from survivable air refueling—it’s a realignment in how the Air Force wants to achieve it.
A Systems Approach Over an Exquisite Platform
According to Maj. Gen. Joseph Kunkel, Director of Force Design at the Pentagon, the Air Force is adopting a systems-based approach to survivable refueling. Rather than spend hundreds of millions per aircraft on stealth tankers, the service plans to leverage more conventional tankers like the KC-46 and KC-135, augmented by technologies and tactics that disrupt the adversary’s kill chain.
This is a classic example of shifting from a platform-centric mindset to a capability-centric one.
What does this mean in practice? Survivability won’t come from cloaking the tanker in radar-absorbing materials—it will come from electronic warfare, decoys, long-range standoff, deception, and perhaps most importantly, distributed operational concepts that deny the enemy a clean targeting solution.
What This Means for Industry
For defense suppliers and business developers, this shift should sharpen your focus:
• The opportunity hasn’t gone away—it’s changed form. While NGAS may be shelved, the requirement to enable contested refueling is alive and well. That means demand for survivability technologies, autonomous systems, and tactical enablers is only growing.
• Legacy platforms are getting a new lease on life. Expect further modernization efforts for the KC-46 and KC-135, including sensor upgrades, communication enhancements, and collaborative autonomy tools that integrate with future systems like CCAs (Collaborative Combat Aircraft).
• Value and adaptability are now king. NGAD’s survival despite concerns over its cost shows that even exquisite programs must make a strong case in cost-per-effect. Systems that are digitally engineered, modular, and survivable without massive logistics tails will win.
• Force design thinking is replacing traditional acquisition. The Air Force didn’t just kill NGAS—they redefined the problem. In today’s environment, that’s a key lesson: those who shape the requirement space will win the future.
Second in Command Can Help You Navigate the Shift
At Second in Command Consulting, we specialize in helping aerospace and defense companies rethink their go-to-market strategies and align with the mission-focused, system-of-systems reality of modern warfare. Whether you’re shaping a new product launch, supporting a proposal response, or trying to understand where your technology fits in this evolving puzzle—we bring decades of operational, technical, and sales expertise to help you lead with clarity.
The tanker isn’t dead. The mission has just changed. Are you ready?
Need help adjusting your capture strategy or market positioning in the face of changing Air Force priorities? Let’s talk.
*Source: Steve Trimble, “U.S. Air Force Next-Gen Tanker Prospects Are Running On Fumes,” Aviation Week, March 4, 2025.
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